Peru’s bitterly contested presidential election remained too close to call as conservative Keiko Fujimori’s razor-thin lead over leftist candidate Roberto Sánchez narrowed while votes still being counted.

Fujimori led with 50.2% to Sánchez’s 49.7% with 92% of ballots counted. The outcome remains uncertain as votes from Sánchez’s strongholds in remote regions were trickling in. Fujimori has performed better in Lima and other urban centers, where counting is faster.

Two quick counts from a sample of voting stations nationwide by pollsters Ipsos and Datum put Sánchez slightly above 50% of the vote, although both candidates were still locked in a statistical tie.

“It’s a result that does not yet allow us to conclude anything about a possible winner,” said Ipsos Peru President Alfredo Torres. Ipsos is highly regarded in Peru and its quick count methodology has a perfect record predicting electoral outcomes this century.

A full official count isn’t expected until mid-July when any challenged votes are set to be adjudicated. The delay is likely to set off a tense battle between the two campaigns as party volunteers seek to challenge the validity of their rivals’ votes.

The two presidential candidates have starkly different ideas on how to lead the politically turbulent nation with an economy that’s managed to outperform peers despite cycling through four presidents in the last five years. The winner will succeed interim President José María Balcázar on July 28 for a five-year term. A Sánchez win would buck the trend of Latin American countries shifting to the right.

Sánchez struck a triumphant tone in his post-vote speech, speaking over chants and whistles from supporters gathered in a plaza in Lima. Still, he stopped short of claiming victory.

“The quick count shows a significant lead that reaffirms the will of the people, who want democracy and justice. But, as befits a democratic people, this is the moment to defend the vote,” Sánchez said.

Fujimori said in a TV address that she will respect the results, regardless of the outcome, adding that every vote must be counted. The three-time runner-up, who in 2021 alleged she lost because of fraud, asked her party’s volunteers to work extra hard in defending her votes.

“At this point, there is no winner in this race,” Fujimori said. “It would be irresponsible to declare a result based on a sample such as the quick count.”

Starkly different views

Sánchez, who was former President Pedro Castillo’s foreign trade and tourism minister, has pledged to pardon him and follow through on his plans to redraft Peru’s market-friendly constitution, arguing that it limits the state’s ability to guide the economy development and manage strategic resources.

He’s earned support in Peru’s poorer Andean regions thanks to his promises to increase the minimum wage, bolster family farming over agribusiness and double public spending in rural areas. But as was the case for Castillo, Sánchez would struggle to enact significant reforms because he would lack majorities in the new fragmented Congress.

Fujimori, meanwhile, is one of Peru’s most powerful politicians, and her Popular Force party has wielded significant influence in Congress, largely due to her placing as the second most-voted candidate over the last three election cycles. The legacy of her father, former leader Alberto Fujimori who was convicted over human rights violations and corruption, has weighed on her previous runs.

A conservative, she has promised tough-on-crime policies and is viewed positively among investors who favor her pro-market policies.

Fujimori has promised to deport undocumented immigrants who commit crimes, give the armed forces control of the border and replicate the high-security mega-prison El Salvador built under President Nayib Bukele. She has also pledged to double annual economic growth from the current 3% to 6%, slash red tape and introduce zero taxes for small businesses to boost formalization in an economy where 70% remains informal.

—With assistance from Antonia Mufarech.

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